![]() We also find some evidence that conflict events affect public opinion, implying a mutually reinforcing relationship between violence and general acceptance for using violence. This relationship remains even after controlling for previous levels of conflict, meaning that the finding cannot be dismissed as merely reflecting a reverse causal effect. Africa comes second in the number of armed conflicts per region with more than 35 non-international armed conflicts (NIACs) taking place in Burkina Faso. According to a study by the Stockholm-based International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), out of a total of 49 sub-Saharan African states, at least 20 were involved in some armed conflict in 2020. Furthermore, the combined effects of nearby violence and approval of violence is stronger than either condition alone, implying a diffusion effect. In a quasi-experimental research design, using geo-referenced survey data of 18,508 respondents for 162 administrative units across 16 countries, paired with precisely geo-referenced conflict event data, we find that popular acceptance for the legitimacy of using physical violence in the survey is positively associated with subsequent conflict events. Focusing on sub-Saharan African states, we examine whether population attitudes may contribute to the spatial diffusion of political violence that is found at sub-national scales. What explains this clustering is less clear, and different studies point to different mechanisms. This spatiotemporal pattern has been identified between countries as well as within them. One of the most powerful predictors of violent political conflict is proximate violence in space and time.
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